It is the U.S. economy that defines the state of the world economy, and given the financial and political influence of America, the prospect of its development. In the U.S., only 20 percent of GDP is created in the real sector, the remaining 80 is a financial speculation based on the current neoliberal model of development of nearly all countries on the planet. The U.S. debt for years has been growing at the rate of 10 percent a year, and GDP – 2 percent. Even all newly created assets in the world (4 percent of global GDP per year) will be unable to repay it. Raising the debt ceiling is becoming increasingly more difficult, and is a hopeless task. Those on Wall Street are well aware of it. Soon the debt pyramid will collapse, or rather will be collapsed. What should be done to provide the groundwork for the restoration of the financial power? Of course, for starters, all possible assets in the offshore must be collected.
Offshore is created precisely to lure capital with low or even zero tax on income from investments, and minimal oversight of monetary transactions in the market. Business is conducted in accordance with a simplified procedure, and clients and investors are protected by bank secrecy and other similar regulations. This system allows attracting capital ten times higher than the local production sector. In Cyprus, for example, it is seven times higher than the local GDP, or 126 billion euros, and this money will flow (according to experts) not to the European offshore – Gibraltar, Madeira, Ireland, Andorra, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein, but to the British or American ones – Delaware, Bermuda and the Cayman Islands, the Virgin Islands, and so on.
Now recall the statement of British Prime Minister David Cameron about a possible withdrawal from the EU, and the information about creating a free economic zone between the transatlantic U.S. and EU leaked to the press at the end of the year. It becomes clear that this has to do with a plan to change the world order with the old global players, but new alliances, with no room for weak links in the form of „peripheral”, weak European economies.
Next task is to remove the European and other offshore companies from the playing field, tightening the entire system of capital accumulation, linking it to its territory. Part of it would be expropriated under the Cyprus scenario, and the rest will be used for the recovery. The U.S. and UK have found an ally in Europe – Germany. Obviously, the three main players are now actively negotiating the redistribution of financial flows. Germany, judging by the events in Cyprus, became actively involved in the process, and its position, albeit ambiguous, is more powerful, as the country has a strong real sector economy. Germans also have Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble who is a gray cardinal and the engine behind the process.
He is the second most important person in the EU, and perhaps even the first, since he gives orders to the ECB President Mario Draghi to run the printing press. This is the only person who was elected by his party (CDU) in the Bundestag ten consecutive terms, that is, he has forty years of experience staying in power. His interview in November of 2011withThe New York Times implies that the actions of Germany (and maybe even the U.S.) in Cyprus were not a tragic mistake, but a well-defined plan. In that interview Schaeuble spoke about the need to move towards a centralized Europe, as the euro zone was not enough. He spoke about the need to form a political union whose president would be elected directly by the people. He further said that at the time there was a limited transitional period and that nervousness in the market had to be controlled, but by the end of 2012 or mid-2013, everything needed to strengthen and deepen the political structures would be in place. The Minister concluded that a political union could only be achieved in times of a crisis.
The plan is simple: to achieve formation of a rigid centralized control and the use of force with the help of financial turmoil – the sentence of the „three” IMF, the ECB, and, frankly, Germany. Now the „three” will dictate how much money will be automatically deducted from the accounts to keep the system afloat. If there is opposition, Brussels will shut down services that the system created – online banking, ATMs and banks. Germany has nothing to fear as after the Cyprus events Europeans will start transferring the money to German banks.
In the near future Europe will either resolve to politically succumb to Germany or the EU will disintegrate and a new unit will be formed, represented by the donor countries, while other countries will be removed from the picture.
Russia can feel relatively unaffected by these perturbations as it is minimally involved in a virtual financial speculative market, and the real sector in the Russian Federation dominates over the speculative one. However, the Russians are not willing to give their money to save the Germans and Anglo-Saxons, and the Russian government may consider itself warned. If it does not take action to close the accounts of large Russian businesses (up to 80 percent) in foreign offshore, Russia will lose starting opportunities under the new world order. Due to the Cyprus precedent, Russia has a real chance to return the capital to the country. Russia would greatly benefit from a strategist similar to Schauble.
It appears that Russia must urgently create its own offshore, although the idea has been discredited by the liberal press bought by Golden Sachs and associates. Perhaps, Russia should impose a tax on withdrawal of capital, as did Rafael Correa in Ecuador, or even solve the problem through the prosecutor’s office, but there is an urgent need to do something. Otherwise, in three to five years, the Americans will build a new world order with difficult for Russia conditions.